This story is fiction.
But the science,
…is very real.
Flash Update:
Thursday, March 2, 2017 (day before yesterday !!) NASA Near Earth Asteroid program announced that a 10 ft (3m) asteroid was discovered 6 hours before it flew very close to the earth, passing earth at a distance equal to 1/20th of the Earth-Moon distance...9,000 miles above earth's surface ! ...(Earth's geosynchronous satellites, like weather satellites that orbit staying above a particular spot on the surface, orbit at a height of 23,300 miles... IE: 9,000 miles if freakin' CLOSE !!)". If it had been aligned to strike Earth, there would have been NO TIME to do anything about it...
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September 21, 2012:
DISCOVER MAGAZINE: Kislovodsk, Russia, Vitali Nevski and Artyom Novichonok, performing a routine sky survey, as part of the International Scientific Optical Network, or ISON, stumbled across a dim, fuzzy object, near the constellations Cancer and Gemini. Designated 2012-SC1, the “fuzz” was caused by the outer layers of Comet ISON, as it was later named, disintegrating and dispersing as it accelerated toward the warmth of the sun. After further observation and calculation, it has been determined that ISON will reach perihelion, its closest approach to the sun, at 1:41pm EST, November 28, 2013. The comet will pass within a mere 750,000 miles of the sun, being what astronomers call a “sun grazer”. This close approach to the intense heat of the sun is expected to make ISON one of the most visible comets in recent history, perhaps becoming bright enough to be seen in full daylight. [1]
A very long time ago, perhaps a couple of million years, in the part of our Solar System called the Oort Cloud, some gravitational disturbance caused a clump of material to slow, relative to its already very, very slow path around the Sun, and in slowing, caused it to begin to fall, accelerating, though very, very slowly at first, toward the Sun.
The Oort Cloud is a distant part of our Solar System, very far from the sun, perhaps a thousand times more distant that Pluto, almost half-way to the next star. The cloud is a collection of interstellar dust and debris that was part of the giant gas cloud from which the Sun and our planets formed. But after our sun coalesced into the star it is today, the energy of its light formed a “solar wind”, and began to push the remaining dust away, far away, out to the farthest reaches of the solar system. That dust and debris gradually, very gradually, began to clump together, to form some of the occasional visitors to the inner Solar System, that we call comets. [1]
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Of course, comets have visited the Earth before…many times. Famously, there are objects like Halley’s Comet, which are in regular orbits that bring them near the Sun, and near the Earth, periodically. Halley returns, very regularly, every 75 years. Other comets we see however, may have either never visited the inner Solar System before, or have only done so long enough ago that humans did not record, or notice, the event.
Comets can also be notoriously irregular in their composition, and thus their visibility. Comet Halley’s most recent visit, in 1986, was a not-so-bright, somewhat disappointing show, owing perhaps to the make-up of the material on the surface of the comet itself. Comets are composed of clumps of dust, ice, ionized gasses, etc. in a “ball” that might be like a compacted snowball, with chunks of ice and rocky debris, or could be more like the consistency of loose snow in a snow bank, being held together only by the minimal gravitational force of such a low mass object.
As the comet travels nearer the Sun, the heat from solar radiation begins to melt and evaporate the ice and other material on the comet’s surface. This evaporation can be increasingly violent, even explosive, as the radiant heat increases, throwing off tons of material per minute from the comet, into nearby space, which is then swept back by the Solar Wind into a long, bright tail. At times, the more spectacular comets have been bright enough to be seen during the day, as noticeable as looking up and seeing the full Moon.
If this somewhat violent evaporation of material seems extreme, given that comets are typically residents of a very cold, very dark, very distant portion of our Solar System, then consider the effect of slamming into Earth’s atmosphere at maybe 40,000 miles per hour, or in some cases faster, like maybe double that…or more. The effect is indeed violent and explosive. Depending on a comet’s mass, speed, and the angle at which it strikes, you can wind up with an incident like “Chelyabinsk” (which we’ll talk about in a moment), or maybe one like “Tunguska”, or even one that causes enough destruction that it sets off a mass extinction, like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs.
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June 30, 1908:
Tunguska: The Tunguska event was an enormously powerful explosion that occurred near the Podkamennaya Tunguska River in what is now Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia, at about 07:14 KRAT on June 30, 1908. The explosion is believed to have been caused by the air burst of a small asteroid or comet at an altitude of 5–10 kilometers (3–6 mi) above Earth's surface. Different studies have yielded widely varying estimates of the object's size, on the order of 60 m (200 ft) to 190 m (620 ft). It is the largest impact event on or near Earth in recorded history… Estimates of the energy of the blast range from as low as three to as high as 30 megatons of TNT (Most likely it was between 10–15 megatons of TNT , or about 1,000 times greater than that of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima). [3]
Key words here: “small asteroid or comet”, maybe 60-190m in diameter. “Small”…yet producing an explosion around 1,000 times that of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Hiroshima was rated at about 20 Kilotons, yes “Kilo”…Tunguska was around 20 Megatons, as in “big f-ing explosion”…from a “small” object. Read on.
March 21, 2013
Chelyabinsk: At 9:20:20 a.m. local time, the meteor entered Earth's atmosphere over the Kazakhstan, Russia border. As it descended through the upper atmosphere, it traveled northwest into Russia. The impactor's trajectory approached Earth along a direction that remained within 15 degrees of the direction of the sun. Asteroid detection telescopes cannot scan regions of the sky this close to the sun. Thirteen seconds after atmospheric entry, at 9:20:33 a.m. local time, the fireball, traveling at a velocity of 11.6 miles per second (almost 42,000 miles per hour), achieved its maximum brightness just south of Chelyabinsk, Russia, at an altitude of 14.5 miles. The approximate effective diameter of the asteroid is estimated to be about 18 meters, and its mass about 11,000 tons. Approximate total impact energy of the Chelyabinsk Fireball, is 440 kilotons of TNT [which sent around 1,500 people to hospitals, and damaged around 7,200 buildings, both resulting mostly from blown-out windows]. The Chelyabinsk event was an extraordinarily large fireball, the most energetic impact event recognized since the 1908 Tunguska blast in Russian Siberia. This path through the atmosphere reinforces that the fireball was not associated with asteroid 2012 DA14, which made a very close flyby of Earth just over 16 hours later [about 14,000 miles from Earth, inside our ring of geosynchronous satellites] . [2]
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Perhaps not surprisingly, there are a lot of folks interested in detecting near-earth objects before they hit us. I’m thinking, that’s a good thing. But let’s think for a moment about how difficult that task is. These objects come in a wide variety of sizes, and can come at us from any direction. Fortunately, there are hundreds, maybe thousands, of organizations, scholarly and governmental, but also lots and lots of regular folks with computers and telescopes scanning the skies every night, eager to be the first to discover something new.
Indeed, a number of governments have placed high priorities on detecting objects, because only by detecting, and only by detecting with ample time before impact, could we ever have the possibility to destroy or deflect an object, and prevent disaster here on earth.
June 18, 2013:
GIGOM.COM: NASA officials are planning to monitor all asteroids that pass near Earth, they announced Tuesday, an ambitious effort that will need international collaboration between government organizations, private companies, universities and citizens.
The space agency currently spots 95 percent of near-Earth asteroids larger than 3,280 feet (1,000m) across. They detect less than 1 percent of asteroids smaller than 328 feet (100m). The new plan calls for tracking any rock large enough to damage human civilization, including those less than 33 feet (10m) wide. That would catch objects like the 56-foot (17m) meteor that exploded over [Chelyabinsk] Russia, in February 15, 2013. The agency would also collect thorough information on asteroids’ size, composition, spin and surface properties. NASA would attempt to deflect any Earth-bound asteroids larger than 328 feet (100m).
Back in March, NASA and the House of Representatives Science Committee had a tense conversation about current asteroid efforts, when NASA Chief Chris Bolden chastised the government for not providing enough funding after Congress accused NASA of not being prepared for an incident like the recent Russian meteor. The 2005 NASA Authorization Act requires the agency to track 90 percent of near-Earth objects larger than 460 feet (140m) wide by 2020 — a goal it has yet to meet.
NASA currently tracks asteroids with telescopes equipped with cameras. The telescopes scan the sky continuously and automatically upload sightings of objects headed toward Earth to an online database. Current technology limits researchers’ ability to spot smaller asteroids, which quite regularly escape notice altogether.
Officials have dubbed the expanded tracking project a “grand challenge” — a title awarded in the past to major scientific goals like identifying the most crucial parts of the human genome. [4]
The space agency currently spots 95 percent of near-Earth asteroids larger than 3,280 feet (1,000m) across. They detect less than 1 percent of asteroids smaller than 328 feet (100m). The new plan calls for tracking any rock large enough to damage human civilization, including those less than 33 feet (10m) wide. That would catch objects like the 56-foot (17m) meteor that exploded over [Chelyabinsk] Russia, in February 15, 2013. The agency would also collect thorough information on asteroids’ size, composition, spin and surface properties. NASA would attempt to deflect any Earth-bound asteroids larger than 328 feet (100m).
Back in March, NASA and the House of Representatives Science Committee had a tense conversation about current asteroid efforts, when NASA Chief Chris Bolden chastised the government for not providing enough funding after Congress accused NASA of not being prepared for an incident like the recent Russian meteor. The 2005 NASA Authorization Act requires the agency to track 90 percent of near-Earth objects larger than 460 feet (140m) wide by 2020 — a goal it has yet to meet.
NASA currently tracks asteroids with telescopes equipped with cameras. The telescopes scan the sky continuously and automatically upload sightings of objects headed toward Earth to an online database. Current technology limits researchers’ ability to spot smaller asteroids, which quite regularly escape notice altogether.
Officials have dubbed the expanded tracking project a “grand challenge” — a title awarded in the past to major scientific goals like identifying the most crucial parts of the human genome. [4]
From the above news story, you can see the magnitude of the problem. At present, NASA has the desire to detect all objects as large as the Chelyabinsk meteor, but is actually not detecting even 1 percent of the Tunguska-sized objects. Not even one percent !! And, those objects are only rated as “tiny” and “small” respectively…what about “medium” …and “large” ?
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Oct. 17, 2013:
“NASA: Newly discovered asteroid 2013 TV135 made a close approach to Earth on Sept. 16, 2013, when it came within about 4.2 million miles (16 times the Earth-Moon distance). The asteroid is initially estimated to be about 1,300 feet (400 meters) in size and its orbit carries it as far out as about three quarters of the distance to Jupiter's orbit and as close to the sun as Earth's orbit. It was discovered on Oct. 8, 2013, by astronomers working at the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory in Ukraine. As of Oct. 14, asteroid 2013 TV135 is one of 10,332 near-Earth objects that have been discovered. With only a week of observations for an orbital period that spans almost four years, its future orbital path is still quite uncertain, but this asteroid could be back in Earth’s neighborhood in 2032.” [5]
You see, even with all those folks out there, every night, eager to discover the next big thing in asteroids or comets, now and then, one just whooshes by us in space, and is seen, just as in the example above, only after it has passed Earth. Dramatic Hollywood movies show heroic human efforts, teams of highly dedicated individuals trying their best to destroy or deflect an oncoming celestial object in a desperate attempt to save the planet. Of course, this can only happen when the object is discovered some distance away, to give us some time to react, to figure out what to do. But, in the example above, an object 400 meters in diameter is noticed nearly 3 weeks after it passed through our orbit. After ! If that doesn’t raise the hair on the back of your neck, then you are not paying attention.
In the case of 2013 TV135, the situation was a near-miss, we look up, and say “hey, what was that ?” as it sails by. Seeing and reporting it is a “success”, in that we did see it. But if it had been on a slightly different course, one that would impact the Earth, we would have had no warning. If we are ever to deflect, disrupt or destroy an incoming object, we’ll have to have some time, some significant time, in order to prepare some device to send out to meet it. We’ll have to get that device up into space, and position it alongside the danger, to either nudge the asteroid off course or blow it up.
Lots of complications exist. For one, these things move quickly. As they approach Earth, they may be traveling at 85,000…maybe 100,000 miles per hour. Another is their wildly differing shapes, rotations, and compositions. Still another issue to consider when launching some anti-asteroid mission, is trust. After all, we would be tinkering with an object that would range in size from one able to destroy a city, to one large enough to destroy a planet, and “we”, the United States, in particular, NASA, (and some foreign partners of course) would be acting on behalf of all human kind. Given the difficulty we have in agreeing on what to do about an earth-based dictator using chemical weapons on his people (Syria), how would we ever be able to agree on how to “shoot down” an oncoming, high-speed, tumbling, irregularly shaped, irregularly composed object. How ?
The “discovery after the fact” of asteroid 2013 TV135 could have been a big problem, but this time, as it passed by, it passed by…it missed us. As observers carefully plotted its course over the next few weeks, they determined that it’s in an orbit that will bring it back around, to again be in the vicinity of the Earth, in 2032. It presently isn’t expected to hit us then, but of course many things could happen to potentially alter its course a bit, between now and then. The good news is, that kind of time, 20 years or so, is the kind of time we would need to somehow alter its orbital path. For something traveling that far, we would only have to nudge it a tiny, tiny bit off course to cause it to miss Earth. But of course, it all depends on time.
The “discovery after the fact” of asteroid 2013 TV135 could have been a big problem, but this time, as it passed by, it passed by…it missed us. As observers carefully plotted its course over the next few weeks, they determined that it’s in an orbit that will bring it back around, to again be in the vicinity of the Earth, in 2032. It presently isn’t expected to hit us then, but of course many things could happen to potentially alter its course a bit, between now and then. The good news is, that kind of time, 20 years or so, is the kind of time we would need to somehow alter its orbital path. For something traveling that far, we would only have to nudge it a tiny, tiny bit off course to cause it to miss Earth. But of course, it all depends on time.
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July 8, 2013:
International Scientific Optical Network (ISON): Spurred by last year’s discovery by Nevski and Novichonok of Comet ISON 2012-SC1, observers around the world have been waiting impatiently to search again the area of the sky in which ISON was first sighted. Occasionally in the past, comets have occurred in small groups, leading some to believe that whatever gravitational disturbances leading to one being diverted from its position out in the Oort Cloud, may have also disturbed others. During the Spring, the line of sight along ISON’s path is obscured by the glare of the sun, so until late June and early July, such observations are impossible. Today, observers in partnership with Comet ISON’s discoverers have announced that indeed, a second comet (now designated 2013-NF2), on a path similar to that of ISON, trailing about 17 months behind, will make its closest approach to the sun in late March or early April 2015. [6]
Wonderful. They were right. A second comet is traveling on a path similar to the first, ISON. They were waiting to look for it for several months. It was in a position relative to Earth that put it behind the glare of the Sun, and so they had to wait, as reported, not so patiently, for Earth to travel a bit further along our orbit to make the viewing angle more advantageous. And, there it was. It has been designated “Comet 2013-NF2”, which is code for the year and part of the month in which it was discovered.
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September 1, 2013:
NASA: Further observations of Comet 2013-NF2, indicate a path lined up with the plain of the ecliptic, the orbital plain occupied by the planets as they revolve around the sun. This path will bring the comet into relatively close proximity with the Earth as it crosses Earth’s orbit on its way to the comet’s close approach with the Sun. Unfortunately, the comet’s path will bring it even closer to Earth after it swings behind the Sun, on its return to deep space. This second approach is creating cause for concern among astronomers who are busily making further calculations of the object’s trajectory. In addition, the object’s size has now been estimated to be several times as large as Comet ISON. Given the large size of the object and the nearness of its expected path, the comet has been given a Near Earth Object Hazard Rating of “Torino 4”. Observation and refinement of calculations continues.
The Torino Scale is used to rate and communicate the combination of likelihood and magnitude of impacts from near-Earth objects. Basically, it is multiplying the expected impact energy of an object to the percentage likelihood of an impact, and using the result to rate the danger to Earth, and thus communicate the urgency, or lack thereof, of coordinated governmental action to mitigate the situation:
Torino 4:
A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of regional devastation. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away. [9]
The Torino Scale is a method for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and comets. It is intended as a communication tool for astronomers and the public to assess the seriousness of collision predictions, by combining probability statistics and known kinetic damage potentials into a single threat value. An object is assigned a 0 to 10 value based on its collision probability and the kinetic energy (expressed in megatons of TNT) of the possible collision. A 10 indicates that a collision is certain, and the impacting object is large enough to precipitate a global disaster. [9]
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After the new comet’s initial discovery, many observers began to watch its trajectory and plot its future path. As results came in and were cross-checked and verified, another announcement was made:
February 13, 2014:
NASA: Refinement of trajectory calculations for the newly named Comet Strelka (originally 2013-NF2) have determined that the likelihood of a collision exists, between the object and the Earth, as the comet makes its return to deep space, on or about April 27, 2015. The comet will reach Perihelion, its closest approach to the Sun, at 9:27am EST, March 31, 2015. This very close approach to the heat and gravitational forces of the Sun, at a distance from the Sun’s surface of only 1,300,000 miles, or about five times the Earth-Moon distance, may have as yet unpredictable effects on the path and even the configuration of the comet. This path is not quite as close as the approach of Comet ISON to the Sun in November of 2013, comparisons to that event and calculations of the possible effects on the comet, and of the comets potential effects as it passes Earth, continue. With this new information, the Near Earth Object Hazard Rating for Comet 2013-NF2, has been raised to “Torino 7”. Governmental authorities worldwide are receiving briefings about the situation and the possible need for preparations.
Now named Comet Strelka, or “Arrow” in Russian, in honor of the discoverers of the comet’s companion, Comet ISON, and in reference to its straight, nearly flat trajectory along the plain of the ecliptic, urgent calculations and preparations continue. Governments regularly involved in sending men and satellites to space (USA/NASA, The European Space Agency, Russia, China, Japan and India) are discussing and debating various possibilities of deflecting or perhaps destroying the comet. Debates are heated as many hope the comet will narrowly miss the Earth, and fear that tinkering with it in advance may actually increase, instead of decrease, the chances of collision.
Torino 7:
A very close encounter by a large object, which if occurring this century, poses an unprecedented but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. For such a threat in this century, international contingency planning is warranted, especially to determine urgently and conclusively whether a collision will occur. [9]
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February 22, 2014:
It’s difficult to accurately communicate anything to 7 billion people. If we were a homogeneous population of similarly educated, similarly socialized individuals, communicating word of some important event, even to remote and inaccessible regions, wouldn’t be so hard.
Our problem, humanity’s problem, is that our various cultures, large number of local languages, our wildly varying educational experiences, plus local and regional rivalries, and our often (violently) conflicting religious beliefs, lead us to receive alarming news like a bunch of panicky, highly suspicious, wild animals.
Virtually everyone’s reaction to the news of the possible collision between the comet and the Earth has been different. There has been mix of fear, resignation, panic, peaceful resolve that they will soon meet their creator, sheer terror that they will soon meet their creator, or, in many, many cases, just a stunned look of bewilderment, wondering what to do, wondering who to believe.
Add to this, in lots and lots of cases, a heated distrust for government officials, or suspicion that others on Earth will work to save themselves at the expense of their neighbors, or even that some long-time rival has actually brought about this nightmare as revenge on an enemy for some earlier wrong-doing, and you have a hot, frothy mix of anger, resentment, fear and panic that thrusts its way into everyone’s thinking.
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March 2, 2015:
To contrast all that fear and panic, we have the beauty of this event. Comet Strelka is currently passing through Earth’s annual orbital path, a few times the Earth-Moon distance in front of us, on its way to an historic rendezvous with the largest, hottest object in our Solar System, the Sun. As the comet travels from its very, very low temperature, deep-space home, toward our very warm neighbor, its surface is warming up. Even though it is still around a hundred million miles from the Sun, the radiant heat it is receiving is rapidly increasing.
Comets are a mix of several things, dust, interstellar debris, ice, ionized gasses, and many elements which, when floating around in deep space are in a frozen, solid form. But many of these, with the addition of even the least amount of energy, begin to evaporate, even explosively, from the surface of the comet. The result is a bright, gleaming coma of gas and dust surrounding the head of the comet, and a long, bright, sweeping tail, formed as the sun’s energy, the Solar Wind, pushes these light, smoky, gassy, materials back behind the comet.
Breathtaking. The coma and even the brightest parts of the tail can be seen, by everyone, even in full daylight. It’s as easy to see as the full moon in a clear blue daytime sky. At night, it’s fantastic! As the sky darkens, you can see more and more tail until you are viewing a glistening, glowing object that stretches almost a quarter of the way across night sky. Not only astronomers and sky watchers see it, it is there as a constant, brilliant reminder of the danger we face, for everyone on the planet.
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March 30, 2015:
NASA: Within hours, Comet Strelka will make its close approach to the sun, as it makes a break-neck turn and is flung again by the Sun’s huge gravitational forces, back out toward the outer Solar System. The world holds its breath, waiting to see how the comet will be affected by the heat and gravitational forces it will experience. Already, a huge tail has been formed, by material that has been evaporated by the Sun’s heat and swept back by the force of the Solar Wind. Even though this material has the consistency of the thick, white smoke of a wood fire, its mass is deceiving, as it is made up of the thousands of tons of material now liberated from the comet’s surface every minute. The greatest uncertainty however, is whether or not the comet will be torn apart by the Sun’s gravity, and what the size, velocity, and more importantly, the direction, of the various pieces might be. Within a few hours of the comet’s emergence from behind the sun, astronomers will again examine the configuration of the object to revise and sharpen calculations about its approach to Earth.
And so, we wait. The clock ticks, ever so slowly as, the people of Earth hope that somehow, either God or NASA will deliver them from this evil. Many times, in the course of recent world events, people in other countries have resented the involvement of the United States; have been angry at our interventions, our “meddling”. But this is different. This is definitely one of those times when everyone steps up behind us and says “we’re with you America…we’re with you NASA…so…do something…please…”
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April 2, 2015:
NASA: A few hours ago, about 26 hours after the emergence of Comet Strelka from behind the sun, several groups here on Earth completed and compared calculations on the comet’s new path. Unfortunately, the predictions are dire.
The comet has indeed been broken into many pieces, but given the very large original size of the comet, the pieces are numerous, and many are still large enough to cause great destruction here on Earth. Similar to Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9, which impacted on Jupiter from July 16 to July 22, 1994, Comet Strelka has been torn into a large number of fragments which are now strewn along a course which remains similar to the comets originally calculated path of return.
The Torino Scale designation for the object has been revised to reflect the multiple projectiles: The six largest objects which represent the greatest potential for destruction have been reclassified: (1) as Torino-10, (2) as Torino-9, (1) as Torino-8 and (2) as Torino-7. Seventeen other large pieces have been reclassified: (11) as Torino-8, (3) as Torino-7, (2) as Torino-6 and (2) as Torino-5. Perhaps as many as 120 “smaller” pieces exist, along with more than 1,000 objects designated as “tiny”. It must be mentioned that even these “tiny” objects will likely cause damage similar to the 55-foot diameter (17m) asteroid that exploded over the Russian city of Chelyabinsk, in February 15 of 2013.
Further refinement of calculations is necessary to determine which of the fragments will impact on earth, and when those collisions are likely. Unfortunately, it is virtually certain that several of the most dangerous objects will indeed strike the Earth, and that the effects of those strikes will be widespread devastation. These impacts will take place over a period of about 4 to 5 days, beginning on April 27, 2015.
Torino 10:
A collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean. Such events occur on average once per 100,000 years, or less often. [9]
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April 3, 2015:
What does one do, when confronted with impending doom. I suppose it’s one thing to know that, in a few seconds, one’s life will end. But what about when you have a few week’s warning? What if you have 24 days to think about it? How does one behave?
I’m thinking I will move away, from the city, that is. I live in Houston, and with so many people around, there are lots of opportunities for panic, and ugliness. I have no family anymore…car accident, a few years ago. I don’t have anyone to look after, and if we are all really going to die, it doesn’t make much sense to die protecting material possessions.
So, I will get a few gas cans, fill them and my tank with gas, and drive West, as far as I can manage, hopefully into New Mexico. There are fewer people out there…well, that’s true now, but likely that will change as others flee like I do. I’ll take some cash I have, as much non-perishable food as I can get, and of course, my “little buddy”, a small .38 Special. Time to dial “1-800-get-the-F-out-of-here.”
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April 6, 2015:
It’s quiet here, peaceful, far from the frantic crowds in the cities. I can hear the wind in the trees as the mild gusts drift up the valley. Cool air, cloudless sky. Beautiful. I sit on a ridge and look over the valley, trying to decide…decide what to do…decide if I fully believe the predictions, made now by so many, that we really and truly have no chance. Or, if I should somehow cling to hope. Try. Try something. There have always been doomsday-predictors, who now feel themselves proved right of course, who have built bunkers, stored food, and more ominously, have devised ways to protect it.
I’m trying to figure out if I am one of those guys…if I should use the few days I have left to try and find some cave, some food stocks, or maybe just shoot somebody in the guts and take his. Acts of violence just don’t feel like such a big deal anymore. Police, Fire, Military and other first responders are, after all, staffed and organized by humans. Many of those in government service are, like all the rest of us, nearing a level of panic that makes them almost completely ineffective.
Fires burn out of control in many of the world’s cities, especially in the poorer, more densely occupied areas. Riots have broken out in a number of the slum areas of South America, as fear of the asteroid, fear of the government, fear of each other, and just plain fear, eat away at the last semblance of order. Since not all fully believe the predictions, some smash and grab and rape at will, while others shoot themselves, or shoot others, or organize vigilante groups to protect their women, their homes, and their food.
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April 7, 2015:
“But…it broke apart…that’s what we wanted, right”, says a voice on the radio, the panic in his voice rising. Well, kind of, but not exactly. First, you have to think of the difference between a bullet and a shotgun blast on the human body. A hit from a bullet, basically of any variety, is bad. A shotgun blast is a bit different.
The bb’s that a shotgun fires start life as a clump of lead wrapped in the shotgun shell, nice, neat and compact. Then, as they are fired and leave the barrel, they begin to spread out from each other. This forms something of a “cloud” of bb’s. If the distance between bb’s in the group matches up well with the size of the dove or whatever you might be shooting, the “cloud” gives you a good opportunity to hit your target. If the target distance is too far from the gun, the bb’s will be so spread out that the bb-to-bb distance may be several dove-lengths…so the bird flies right through the pattern, and you miss.
But the nastier aspect of a shotgun blast is when the gun is quite near the target, like a close-range shot at a person. Basically, the bb’s don’t have a chance to spread much, and they hit the target almost like a solid mass. Really devastating.
So, yes, we got it to break up (though not very neatly). Then the sun’s gravity broke it up even further as it made its break-neck, close-pass trip around behind our super-gravity neighbor. Unfortunately, its orbit, as it swung around the sun at its new, much higher velocity, would bring it right back toward us.
Now, there would be a much higher likelihood that at least some of the broken-up pieces would hit us, but, worse, the fact that it was still generally clumped together in its orbit meant that it would hit us almost like a solid mass. Bottom line: We are done for. Life itself here on Earth, will end. 20 days to go.
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April 12, 2015:
As the light started to fade, I hurriedly looked for a hole to hide in overnight. The buildings in this area are built on hilly ground, so many of them have basements. I located a store-front that looked vacant, and walked around behind it, on the down-hill side, to see if it had a basement door. As I rounded the corner, looking and listening carefully for others that might be around, I stopped in my tracks. In front of me, coming around the other corner, likely doing the same as me, was another, looking just as strung out, just as in need of rest. There were no weapons in his hands, so slowly, I held my hands to the side, empty and open.
“Friend,” he started, softly and cautiously, “you lookin’ for a place to sleep, like me ?” I nodded. “You don’t look like you got much to steal…and neither do I. And it ain’t good for either of us to be walking around in the dark, looking for another place. If we can get this here door open, I don’t mind sharing, if you don’t,” he said, in a voice I wasn’t sure I could trust, but with darkness closing in, I didn’t have much choice. “Alright…but this lock hasn’t been broken yet…I wonder why,” I asked. “Hmm…yeah…haven’t seen too many like that…so let’s take care as we try,” he said, glancing about, with what seemed to be genuine caution.
Well, he seemed to have some skill at breaking in. He quickly found a piece of pipe nearby, and we pried the basement door open, doing as little damage as we could. Inside we found an old lawn mower, and a couple of other things that if rolled outside, might make enough room for us to lie down. As quietly as we could, we cleared the space and closed the door behind us, tying it internally with a piece of rope that would hopefully wake us up if somebody tried to get in. Indeed, we didn’t have much to steal, but others might well shoot us before they found that out.
The door seemed like it would keep in most of our noise, so we spoke a little, softly, before we settled down. I had a couple of candy bars that I’d found in a gas station. He had some bread, so we shared a bit of food. To wash it down, he pulled out a small bottle of whiskey and offered me a swig. “Nah,” I said, “I haven’t had any lately…gotta stay light on my feet…thanks.” “Well,” he replied, “it helps settle my jitters. If you’ll be keeping watch a while, maybe I’ll just sleep a little.” “That’s fine,” I said.
“Some mess,” his voice showing his weariness. “This thing is going to hit us, and everybody’s going nuts watching it happen”, the whiskey was working, as it will with a mostly empty stomach, he was relaxing. “You a pray’n man ?”, he asked. “No,” I answered, “with that rock coming, I can’t see it doing much good.” “That’s me,” he replied, voice a bit lower, “I say ‘Let Science be your Religion, and your god will never desert you.”
“You think science will get us out of this,” I asked. “No. No I don’t,” his fatigue now fully apparent, “I figure NASA, the government, everybody who is anybody is working that problem…but they haven’t any tricks left…they shot, they hit, it broke, but all the damn pieces are still coming.” “I just figure science is not about right or wrong, it’s about understanding, studying, learning, and then predicting,” barely audible, “only this time, the prediction is…we die.”
“Friend,” he started, softly and cautiously, “you lookin’ for a place to sleep, like me ?” I nodded. “You don’t look like you got much to steal…and neither do I. And it ain’t good for either of us to be walking around in the dark, looking for another place. If we can get this here door open, I don’t mind sharing, if you don’t,” he said, in a voice I wasn’t sure I could trust, but with darkness closing in, I didn’t have much choice. “Alright…but this lock hasn’t been broken yet…I wonder why,” I asked. “Hmm…yeah…haven’t seen too many like that…so let’s take care as we try,” he said, glancing about, with what seemed to be genuine caution.
Well, he seemed to have some skill at breaking in. He quickly found a piece of pipe nearby, and we pried the basement door open, doing as little damage as we could. Inside we found an old lawn mower, and a couple of other things that if rolled outside, might make enough room for us to lie down. As quietly as we could, we cleared the space and closed the door behind us, tying it internally with a piece of rope that would hopefully wake us up if somebody tried to get in. Indeed, we didn’t have much to steal, but others might well shoot us before they found that out.
The door seemed like it would keep in most of our noise, so we spoke a little, softly, before we settled down. I had a couple of candy bars that I’d found in a gas station. He had some bread, so we shared a bit of food. To wash it down, he pulled out a small bottle of whiskey and offered me a swig. “Nah,” I said, “I haven’t had any lately…gotta stay light on my feet…thanks.” “Well,” he replied, “it helps settle my jitters. If you’ll be keeping watch a while, maybe I’ll just sleep a little.” “That’s fine,” I said.
“Some mess,” his voice showing his weariness. “This thing is going to hit us, and everybody’s going nuts watching it happen”, the whiskey was working, as it will with a mostly empty stomach, he was relaxing. “You a pray’n man ?”, he asked. “No,” I answered, “with that rock coming, I can’t see it doing much good.” “That’s me,” he replied, voice a bit lower, “I say ‘Let Science be your Religion, and your god will never desert you.”
“You think science will get us out of this,” I asked. “No. No I don’t,” his fatigue now fully apparent, “I figure NASA, the government, everybody who is anybody is working that problem…but they haven’t any tricks left…they shot, they hit, it broke, but all the damn pieces are still coming.” “I just figure science is not about right or wrong, it’s about understanding, studying, learning, and then predicting,” barely audible, “only this time, the prediction is…we die.”
…Tick…
April 12, 2015:
Yesterday, in a large room in the Pentagon, the President gathered together the large number of scientists, climatologists, astronomers, physicists and military personnel who have made up America’s Planetary Defense Team, since we first became aware of the danger we now face. The President called the meeting to order, and asked William “Bill” Schafer, NASA lead for the team, to take the podium. “Bill”, the president began, “we’ve tried to deflect this thing, we’ve tried to destroy it, with no success so far…Bill…just give us your opinion, your feelings, where are we now?…what’s next?”
Mr. Schafer rose, haltingly to his feet. His team quickly rose to support him, his face pale, withered, looking decades older now than when this situation began. Suffering from lack of sleep, and unending stress, in a weak, unemotional, unhopeful voice, never looking up from the podium, Schafer began, “Mr. President, I’m sorry, but we’re…we’re done sir. Now that the comet has broken up, we will be hit by a ton of bricks, and it will be soon.”
Mr. Schafer rose, haltingly to his feet. His team quickly rose to support him, his face pale, withered, looking decades older now than when this situation began. Suffering from lack of sleep, and unending stress, in a weak, unemotional, unhopeful voice, never looking up from the podium, Schafer began, “Mr. President, I’m sorry, but we’re…we’re done sir. Now that the comet has broken up, we will be hit by a ton of bricks, and it will be soon.”
Taking over, as others sat Mr. Schafer back down, his assistant Colleen Stevens, continued, “Basically, Mr. President, there are maybe 120-140 objects the size of the one that caused the Tunguska Event. Of course, not all of them will hit us, but a lot will, maybe 80 or so. They will come at us, from the direction of the Sun, during daylight hours, striking the Northern Hemisphere, and the Northern third of the Southern Hemisphere, over a period of about 90 hours, starting about 16 days from now.
“And worse, of course”, Ms. Stevens continued, “there are larger ones. There are seventeen objects, each one large enough to cause destruction over an entire region. Now, when I say ‘region’, I don’t mean the ‘region of South Texas’…I mean a ‘region’ the size of North America. Of the seventeen, I’m pretty sure eleven will hit us, over the same period of time that the smaller objects are striking.”
“Why,” the President asked softly, “over the 90 hours? Why spread out that way?” “Well sir, that can best be explained by these photos”, Ms. Stevens said, reaching for a thumb drive, “This is Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9, as it struck Jupiter, back in 1994”. [8] [10]
“And then sir, well, there are the big ones”, now faltering, trembling, unable herself to look up from the podium, Ms. Stevens continued, “Six more objects, the most massive ones, each enough to take us out, …sir, I mean…wipe us out…each is on the order of those that got the dinosaurs, sir. I’m figuring four of those will hit us, including the largest one…the “10”. That’s what Mr. Schafer was getting at, sir…we’re done…sir…all of us.”
“Done”, the President said, his tone hard to read, but clearly not hopeful, not the defiant spirit, the never-say-die attitude he displayed some weeks ago, to spur on the initial efforts we took to defend our planet. “Al,” the President hesitated, “what about you?...You got anything left?” “Well, Mr. President”, General Albert Walters, USAF, head of the Joint NASA-Ruso-Euro Emergency Defense Command said, stepping to the podium, putting his arm around Ms. Stevens, “I’m afraid, well sir, Schafer and I have been in close communication.”
“Our defense organization”, Gen. Walters continued, “has a few shots left, we’ve prepositioned assets, in the past weeks, hoping to take a few more shots, after the thing came around the sun. Well, between the Russians and us, we have a couple shots left. No idea what the Chinese have, they haven’t communicated much since the coup, but we have a couple. But really sir, these particular shots don’t have a high likelihood of success. We’ll fire, we will hit a couple of them, but the way they tumble, their unpredictable composition, the way the smaller leading pieces are blocking our views of the larger ones…well, sir…if we think we’ll have any real success, we’re just jerking ourselves off…sorry, I just mean, we’ll hit a couple, but we won’t stop ‘em, not enough to do any good. I’m sorry sir.”
…Tick…
April 13, 2015:
“SEOUL: A few hours ago, another attempted intercept mission was launched, this time by the Chinese Emergency Authority. The Chinese did not announce the mission prior to lift off. The rocket was fired from a location near the North Korean border, in a southern trajectory, and settled successfully into a polar orbit. However, as the stage that was intended to take the missile into the path of the asteroid was activated, attempting to leave Earth orbit, a malfunction occurred. The vehicle then careened back into the Earth’s upper atmosphere, where it exploded. Chinese authorities are downplaying the significance of the event, but this remains for many, another example of the hopelessness of Earth’s situation.”
…Tick…
April 13, 2015:
“So, Al,” the President asked in a soft tone, “what will you do now?” “Well sir, I’ll oversee the last attempts to shoot at it of course, but after that, me and Schafer are gonna’ go fishin’.” “Fishing?,” the President asked, “where ?” “Oh, a little lake-side place I have. I mean, look at him sir, he can barely stand. He’s almost killed himself, looking for a way to stop this thing. He’d have given anything, thrown himself on a grenade to stop it, you know what I mean sir,” the General answered. “Yes, yes, I do,” the President replied. “Yep”, the General continued smiling, “we’re gonna’ fish, and drink, and tell bullshit stories, ‘till we just don’t give a shit anymore.” “Alright Al, you guys do that,” said the President, reaching out his hand, “and know that I’ll be thinking about you…tell Bill, that I don’t have words enough to thank him, for all he’s tried to do.” “Ahh shit sir, he knows that,” the General grinned, “but I’ll tell him for sure. Y’all take care now, I’ve gotta’ to get down to Defense Control.”
…Tick…
April 18, 2015:
Bam ! Boom ! Our eyes shot open wide, looking at each other, each wondering if the other had just shot us in our sleep. “What the… !?!, I said. “Shhhh”, he said, “…that was outside…can you see anything ?...through the door ?” With adrenaline causing my heart to pound, I crept over to the door, and looked through a small hole. In a moment, “I see a guy…across the road…he’s down, he’s not moving,” I said, gasping for breath. “So who’s that hollering?,” my friend asked, “move…let me see.”
“Well,” he said, eye glued to the hole, “…that was definitely two weapons, like a pistol and a shot-gun.” “Yeah,” I agreed, “that’s what I thought when I heard ‘em.” “So maybe they shot each other…’cause the one I can see isn’t moving, but I hear somebody…somebody in pain,” he said, watching, “…let’s be quiet a minute, and watch…see if anyone else is moving around out there.”
After what seemed like a long time, still hearing the moans of the injured guy, my friend decided we should go out. We needed to see what they had, might be things we’ll need, and try to see if their shots would bring others around…others that might not do us any good if they thought we had anything they wanted. “Come on”, he said, “stick close to me, and watch our back, let’s see what we’ve got.”
Opening the door, as quietly as possible, we crept out. There was the one guy, guts wide open from a shotgun blast, clearly dead. I picked up his pistol, my friend picked up his pack, as we turned and saw the other guy, a few yards away, in enough pain that he hadn’t yet noticed us. “Hey…buddy…you ok?,” I asked. “Hey pal…leave that gun where it is…we’ll try to help you”, my friend said. The wounded guy raised his hand a little, as if to say “ok”, and we approached slowly. My friend moved the shotgun away from the guy’s hand, and knelt down beside him, looking at the bullet hole in his chest.
“You by yourself ?,” my friend asked. Face tight with pain, the guy said “…me and him…we were hanging together…but he…he stole my food…when I caught up to him…he shot me…well, we shot each other…”, gasping, barely able to speak. “I got something here, my companion said, “…it will help you.” He turned to his own backpack, and as he turned back around, his right hand moved smoothly up to the man’s chest. He had a sharp pointed knife, and he slid it silently in, right into the man’s heart. As the lights went out in the man’s eyes, my friend said, “he wasn’t going anywhere like that…best to have him shut up…before his shout’n brings others around.”
“Well,” he said, eye glued to the hole, “…that was definitely two weapons, like a pistol and a shot-gun.” “Yeah,” I agreed, “that’s what I thought when I heard ‘em.” “So maybe they shot each other…’cause the one I can see isn’t moving, but I hear somebody…somebody in pain,” he said, watching, “…let’s be quiet a minute, and watch…see if anyone else is moving around out there.”
After what seemed like a long time, still hearing the moans of the injured guy, my friend decided we should go out. We needed to see what they had, might be things we’ll need, and try to see if their shots would bring others around…others that might not do us any good if they thought we had anything they wanted. “Come on”, he said, “stick close to me, and watch our back, let’s see what we’ve got.”
Opening the door, as quietly as possible, we crept out. There was the one guy, guts wide open from a shotgun blast, clearly dead. I picked up his pistol, my friend picked up his pack, as we turned and saw the other guy, a few yards away, in enough pain that he hadn’t yet noticed us. “Hey…buddy…you ok?,” I asked. “Hey pal…leave that gun where it is…we’ll try to help you”, my friend said. The wounded guy raised his hand a little, as if to say “ok”, and we approached slowly. My friend moved the shotgun away from the guy’s hand, and knelt down beside him, looking at the bullet hole in his chest.
“You by yourself ?,” my friend asked. Face tight with pain, the guy said “…me and him…we were hanging together…but he…he stole my food…when I caught up to him…he shot me…well, we shot each other…”, gasping, barely able to speak. “I got something here, my companion said, “…it will help you.” He turned to his own backpack, and as he turned back around, his right hand moved smoothly up to the man’s chest. He had a sharp pointed knife, and he slid it silently in, right into the man’s heart. As the lights went out in the man’s eyes, my friend said, “he wasn’t going anywhere like that…best to have him shut up…before his shout’n brings others around.”
…Tick…
April 18, 2015:
TEHRAN: President Hassan Rouhani, held a press conference this evening to address the people of Iran, the region, and the world: “I wish to bring, to everyone, a message of peace. It seems that soon, the earth will face a very difficult time. It also seems, that no matter what the various powers around the world attempt, we are unable to stop this cataclysm which approaches. We can argue that god has brought it upon us, but to no point. We can argue about whose god has brought it, but also, to no point. My friends, my people, the time has come for all of us, to face our god, or our gods, in faith and in peace. Today, I have directed Iranian Defense Forces to instruct any operatives outside our country to immediately return, and to also release all Iranian Military personnel, except the most minimal security forces, from their loyal and steadfast devotion to our country. I do this, so that our young people can travel home to spend these last few precious days, with their families. I wish this message of peace for all, for all our country, but also for those who have seemed, for many years now, to be our enemies. I send out this message, yes, even to the Americans, the Israelis, even to Netanyahu himself. Go, all of you, be in peace. Go to your place of worship, speak in the way you speak to your god, and for the remaining days that we have, gather in the love and the warmth of your families. Good night, and may Allah the Merciful grant us peace, peace for all of us.” [7]
…Tick…
April 18, 2015:
I acted casual, tried not to look rattled, and certainly tried not to look “disapproving”, “Let’s drag them over to those bushes and get back inside,” I said, “…If anybody does come, we should be back in our hide out.” “Yeah, recon so”, my friend replied, and we hid the bodies of the others. “Hey,” I asked, “what kind of pistol is this?...an automatic?” “Yeah”, he said, “see that switch there, that’s the ‘Safety’, click it. Now, slide the slide back, and let it go. Now, be careful, it’s ready to fire.” Knowing already how it worked, I turned my body slightly, so the gun was pointed at his middle, and pulled the trigger.
Bam. He face looked shocked, as he put his hand over the wound, and went down. Seeing where he kept his knife, I took it out again, and slid the point, up under his ribs. But his lights were already out. All last night, I was afraid to fall asleep…afraid that I would wake up dead, having trusted the wrong gringo. So, when I saw him stab the wounded guy, I decided, that at the very least, I would not spend tonight in fear of him. I drug his body over to where the others lay, and threw a couple of branches on top of them. I picked up all four backpacks, the shot gun, and slipped back into my hideout. The world is about to end. I don’t have time to screw around.
…Tick…
April 19, 2015:
“LONDON: A full-scale war has erupted between Pakistani and Indian forces. Pakistani Intelligence Services, as well as almost the entire Pakistani population, remain resolutely convinced that the failed attempt by the Indian Space Agency to target the asteroid with their own nuclear warhead was, in actuality, an attempt to nudge the path of the object away from India and toward its long-time adversary, Pakistan. In response, Pakistani forces today launched several nuclear weapons at Indian targets. Indian anti-missile defense systems have been successful at knocking down three or more of the warheads. However at least three other missiles successfully detonated over Delhi and sites in the states of Gugarat and Rajasthan, causing tremendous loss of life. Indian missile crews retaliated immediately. Pakistani nuclear missile sites, the Pakistani capital of Islamabad, headquarters of the Pakistani Army in Rawalpindi, as well as the city of Lahore, have been hit. Further details from the area are sketchy. Power and communication systems are down over most of the region, and ground forces are now engaging along a wide front”.
…Tick…
April 20, 2015:
One nagging aspect of this situation, is doubt. Fear, of course, is everywhere. But doubt is flying all over as well. First, as in the example of the Indians and Pakistanis, many fear that others are either misrepresenting the likely results of the impact, or are attempting to tilt the situation to their own advantage. Populations do not believe their government’s statements, ignoring their requests for calm. People and governments remain ready to blame each other, and just as frequently, each other’s God, for what all fear will happen.
Adversaries of course, do not trust each other, and even long-time allies fear that somehow, if one country launches a mission to try to destroy or disrupt the asteroid, the shooter might just be trying to reduce the impact on itself, and by intent, or by incompetence, shift it to some other part of the world. Many feared others before this situation, and now, all fear all.
Then, down on the “micro level”, I didn’t trust “my friend”…he wasn’t of course, a “friend”, he was just a casual acquaintance, my having known him for only a day or so. I hadn’t trusted him from the beginning, or maybe you would say, I was afraid of him, or afraid of what he might do. So, in the end…his end…I didn’t take any chances. I whacked him, took his things, and got back into my hideout. In better times, I might have regretted it. But now, I just regretted that there wasn’t another bottle of liquor in his pack.
Adversaries of course, do not trust each other, and even long-time allies fear that somehow, if one country launches a mission to try to destroy or disrupt the asteroid, the shooter might just be trying to reduce the impact on itself, and by intent, or by incompetence, shift it to some other part of the world. Many feared others before this situation, and now, all fear all.
Then, down on the “micro level”, I didn’t trust “my friend”…he wasn’t of course, a “friend”, he was just a casual acquaintance, my having known him for only a day or so. I hadn’t trusted him from the beginning, or maybe you would say, I was afraid of him, or afraid of what he might do. So, in the end…his end…I didn’t take any chances. I whacked him, took his things, and got back into my hideout. In better times, I might have regretted it. But now, I just regretted that there wasn’t another bottle of liquor in his pack.
…Tick…
April 22, 2015:
I don’t know what to do. I have four backpacks now, but even so, it’s just a couple of days-worth of food. I killed a man. Funny, I don’t feel bad about it. He had just killed the other guy, but really, because of the guy’s wounds, he was dead already, he was just being noisy about it. But right or wrong, the whole world will end in just a few more days, so what the hell, do what you need to do, and move on.
But I’m tired, and now I’m alone again. I find what’s left of my, former, friend’s bottle, and take a big swig. Slowly, I start to relax a bit. But still, I don’t know what to do. Alone, I don’t have anybody to look after, and just looking after myself doesn’t seem too worthwhile. I take out my little .38 Special, unload five of the six rounds, and give the cylinder a spin…up to my temple…”Click” a harsh, metallic sound lets me know that, for the moment, I’m still alive. “Crap!” I say, and tilt the bottle back again.
But I’m tired, and now I’m alone again. I find what’s left of my, former, friend’s bottle, and take a big swig. Slowly, I start to relax a bit. But still, I don’t know what to do. Alone, I don’t have anybody to look after, and just looking after myself doesn’t seem too worthwhile. I take out my little .38 Special, unload five of the six rounds, and give the cylinder a spin…up to my temple…”Click” a harsh, metallic sound lets me know that, for the moment, I’m still alive. “Crap!” I say, and tilt the bottle back again.
…Tick…
April 25, 2015:
WASHINGTON: The President of the United States: My fellow Americans, people of the world. The time is near. In a few hours, the more advanced pieces of Comet Strelka, will begin entering the Earth’s atmosphere. Indeed already, we see meteor activity resulting from mere precursors, of the more substantial objects now approaching. Some attempts have been made, by the United States, and by other governments around the world, to prepare shelters which might protect a few of Earth’s residence from the effects of these impacts, and to store away, some limited amount of food to sustain them. Unfortunately, scientists are convinced, that the destruction that we are likely to face, will result in the need for any survivors to remain in such shelters, and to need food, water and other supplies, far longer that such supplies can be expected to last. For this reason, I have instructed our military and other components of our government, to store many of our historical documents, vast amounts of digitized information, and even specially stored seeds of many of the plants that we currently find essential to life, in several underground shelters. Our hope, should any part of humanity survive the oncoming catastrophe, is that one day, they may uncover these items, to help in the rebuilding, of human civilization. Now, as the objects approach, I myself will remain here in Washington, here in the Whitehouse, with my family at my side, to await the final results of this greatest test of human endurance. To all Americans, to the entire world, I wish you peace and God’s mercy. Good night.
…Tick…
April 25, 2015:
“Boom…Boom…BOOM !!…BOOM !!” I’m shaken awake. It’s light outside, late afternoon. I was so tired, I’d slept most of the day. Those clearly were not gun shots. They sounded more like sonic booms, like the one’s I’d heard when I was a kid, out in West Texas, when the airlines and the government didn’t yet care about “noise pollution”. “Boom…boom” again, now fading a bit. I looked out through my peep hole, and didn’t see anyone, so quickly I stepped outside. I could see two smoke trails across the sky. It was still supposed to be a day or so before the main impacts, so these must be “precursors”, smaller, “calling cards” for the main event to come.
“Boom…boom…boom” again, from the West. Coming from the direction of the Sum, from the direction the whole mess would be coming from shortly. Another small object flashed across the sky, leaving a smoke trail, and booming through the air as it disintegrated. The smallest ones would break up, as they came in. It was the next-bigger ones that would make big air-bursts, that might flatten a city.
Later, the bigger ones would make it all the way through the atmosphere, and hit the Earth’s surface. The biggest would vaporize on impact, not just vaporize themselves, but a big chunk of the Earth’s surface where they struck as well, making a wide crater and throwing white-hot ejecta out for hundreds of miles in front of them. This hot material, shooting out through the air, would set everything, every tree, every house, everything, on fire, all at once, for thousands of square miles.
This was it, “the start”, the calling cards. Soon, large areas of the Northern Hemisphere, and big pieces of the Southern, would be on fire. There would be huge tsunamis in all the major oceans, and everyone near the water would die. With everything on fire, and even a volcano or two, here or there, being ripped open by a near-by impact, so much dust, and soot, and ash and carbon dioxide would be thrown up into the air that the Earth would change, in a few hours, forever.
There would be enough fire that oxygen levels would be reduced, replaced by vast amounts of carbon dioxide. The dust and soot would block out the sun for many months, or maybe several years, plunging the Earth into a multi-year winter. Then finally, as the Sun broke through again, the thick blanket of carbon dioxide would warm the planet, way above Earth’s normal temperatures. The initial effects, the long winter, plus the rapid heating of the atmosphere, would wipe out the humans, and all the land animals. The long winter, and then the run-away heat would kill off the plants, even plankton, wiping out the ocean life as well.
I took out my little .38, still with only one bullet it, and spun the cylinder again. It's still coming. The worst will start tomorrow. Do I want to stay and wait for it, or “check-out” now…I don’t know…I don’t know….”Click”…”Fuck !”
…Tick…
April 26, 2015:
JAKARTA: Today, approximately 22 hours before the beginning of major impacts, the Chinese Emergency Authority Committee ordered the launch of all 23 of its remaining fleet of Long March Missiles, loaded with nuclear warheads of various strengths, targeting all the major cities of Japan. About a half-hour prior to the launch, a terse message began repeating over short-wave frequencies:
“To the descendants of the evil, bastard Japanese Imperial Government, in return for the deaths of millions caused by your blatant aggression, violence, murder and rape during the Great Struggle, we send you fire, destruction, death.”
…Tick…
April 27, 2015:
“BAM !!” “BAM !!”
I am thrown across the room, striking my face on the wall. “BOOM!…BAM!…BAM!” The Earth is shaking, jumping, rumbling. It looks like it’s still dark outside, as I try
to stand up. I think my arm is
broken. They are supposed to be striking
during daylight hours, but it shouldn’t be light here for an hour or so…those
strikes must be huge, and very far away, like maybe on the East Coast ! Wow, how could I have felt them here !?!...and
so strong!, they really slammed me around!
This is it, they were right, they are coming. Boom…Boom…rumbling and shaking again….the
daylight is coming, meaning that the part of the Earth that I am sitting on is rotating
around, toward the Sun, like it does every morning, but this time, here come
those damn pieces, those chunks of comet.
Here they come. Booming again, the ground is shaking, I can barely
stand up. I reach again for my “little buddy”, my .38, and for the
bottle…just a little left, so I swig it down…spinning the cylinder,
I raise my "little
friend" up to my temple again…this is it, third time is the charm…
…Tick…Tick…Tick…Tick…Tick……………..
- Mark W. Laughlin
25-November-2013
…Tick…
Footnotes:
[1] The Life and Death of Comet ISON, p. 32, Discover Magazine, November 2013.
[2] March 21, 2013: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/asteroidflyby.html
[4] NASA vows to track every asteroid near Earth as soon as it figures out how,
By Signe Brewster, Jun. 18, 2013 - 12:56 PM PDT
[6] Discovery of Comet 2013-NF2, International Scientific Optical Network (ISON),
July 8, 2013, (fictional).
[7] Web site of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani http://www.president.ir/en/ ,
April 6, 2015, (real site, fictional post).
[8] Comet Shoemaker-Levy Collision with Jupiter, February 19, 2013 02:35pm ET, http://www.space.com/19855-shoemaker-levy-9.html, Elizabeth Howell, SPACE.com Contributor
[10] Photo: Comer Shoemaker-Levy 9, http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/sl9/fragment.html
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